پیش بینی بلندمدت بیتکوین توسط تحلیلگر USB
تحلیلگری از یواسبی (USB) براین باور است که بیتکوین در پی کاهشهای اخیر، کفقیمتی درازمدت خود را دیدهاست، اما رسیدن به قله قیمتی ثبتشده در اواخر دسامبر ۲۰۱۷، یعنی محدوده ۱۹۷۰۰ دلار، بیش از دو دهه زمان نیاز دارد.
تحلیلگر یواسبی، کوین دنیِن (Kevin Dennean) براین باور است که بیتکوین از فاز حباب خود بیرون آمدهاست.
نتیجهگیری دنین از مقایسه مسیر حرکت قیمت بیتکوین با حبابهای معروفی از بازار سهام مانند Dow Jones ،Shanghai ،NASDAq و Nikkei بهدست آمدهاست.
دنین در مورد نتایج مقایسه این چنین بیان میکند:
بحث این است که بیتکوین فاز حباب خود را طی کردهاست و آمادهاست که مانند سایر داراییها و شاخصها در گذشته از خاکستر به ققنوس بدل شود.
تحقیق پیشرو، با استدلال و عنایت به کف قیمتی بوجود آمده بیتکوین در یک دوره بلندمدت زمانی اظهار میشود. نمایش بیتکوین در سال ۲۰۱۹ خصوصاً در حالت صعودی بوجود آمده در آپریل، دلالت بر این نکته دارد که درحالحاضر بحثوتبادل نظر پیرامون کفقیمت بیتکوین متمرکز شدهاست.
بیتکوین از آغاز سالجاری بیش از ۴۰درصد رشد را تجربهکردهاست. همچنین بهنظر میرسد این رمزارز خواهان استراحت در مرز ۵۰۰۰ دلار است، اگرچه طی هفته گذشته در چندین نوبت بهکمتر از این قیمت نیز بازگشتی داشتهاست.
درحالیکه تحقیق یواسبی بهطور موثر نتیجهگیری میکند که بیتکوین همانند سایر رمزارزها کفقیمتی بلندمدت خودرا درک کرده است، دنین معتقداست بیتکوین تا ۲۲ سال دیگر به بالاترین قیمت قبلی خود، نخواهد رسید.
جدول زمانی ارائهشده از مقایسه بیتکوین و بازار سهام نتیجهگیری شدهاست، دنین تصریحکرد:
ما در این جدول برای مقایسه بیتکوین با بازار سهام، از مدت بازیابی تا رسیدن مجدد سهام به بالاترین قیمت ثبتشده در گذشته نتیجه گرفتهایم ( دوره بازیابی برای داوجونز ۲۲ سال طول کشیدهاست).
سقوط قیمت بیتکوین از قله ثبتشدهاش، شبیه Nasdaq در سال ۲۰۰۰و داوجونز در سال ۱۹۲۹ است و این درحالیاستکه بیتکوین شرایط مشابه را چندینبار پشتسر گذاردهاست.
در تمام موقعیتهای قبلی، بیتکوین نهتنها بهبود یافتهاست، بلکه قله های جدید قیمتی را نیز در سالهایبعد بهثبت رساندهاست.
بهنظر میرسد تحقیقات دنین تنها مقایسه مابین سقوط قیمت در سال ۲۰۱۸ را با سقوط بازار سهام در گذشته مدنظر قرار میدهد. گفتنیاست مطابق جدول بالا بیتکوین پیش از این ۵ نوبت از این “حبابها” را ازجمله ۹۳درصد افت بین ماههای ژوئن و نوامبر ۲۰۱۱ را تجربه کردهاست.
بااینحال، رشد بیتکوین در طول دهه گذشته بیسابقه بودهاست. هیچچیز در مقایسه با بیتکوین بهسرعت و کیفیت آن پیشرفت نکردهاست. حتی موفقترین شرکتها و نوآوران نیز این حد از پیشرفت را تجربه نکرده اند.
منبع: bitcoinist
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